Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s surprise, stream-of-consciousness announcement that she will resign effective July 26 raises questions and invites speculation, so here’s some for your consideration.
Three possibilities come to mind, but some combination of these could be behind Palin’s sudden move.
First up, some underling or associate gives up to investigators some potentially damaging information about Palin. Investigators go to Palin, either with questions that make her plenty uncomfortable or with the potentially damaging information, asking for her side of the story.
Either way, Palin gets rattled. She talks to her lawyer and husband. It’s decided this business of being under investigation is becoming too dangerous. Maybe if she lets the governorship go and returns to private life, investigators will lose interest, so the problem, whatever it is, goes away.
Second, Palin and her husband look at sagging poll numbers, a lot of negative publicity, her recent history of having been No. 2 in a disastrous loser of a presidential campaign, and decide her chances of raising enough campaign money to get re-elected — if she even could get re-elected — are not good.
Beyond that, if she were to run for re-election and fail, she would carry the taint of a loser — not something Republicans tolerate well. Being a two-time loser would surely destroy any future chance to run for Congress or the White House.
So, it’s decided she would do better to quit while ahead. As a private citizen, she can still go on speaking tours, support other Republican candidates, thus building a base of allies and future supporters, the way Richard Nixon did in the mid-1960′s.
Should Palin decide to run for office later on, she’ll be able to present herself as a mistreated underdog who was driven from office by liberal-media elites and mean-spirited lefties. That kind of thing plays well with the hard-right base.
Third, the Palins hold a family meeting. The children tell Sarah they’ve had it with all the harsh, hurtful publicity. They’re tired of seeing their mom bashed on blogs, talk shows, in gossip mags and by late-night comedians. They’re also tired of being in the spotlight themselves.
Todd weighs in with worries about investigations and money. They’ve already had to give money back to the Republican Party and the state. Those expenses plus attorney fees have cost them a fortune.
Todd reminds Sarah they’ve got an infant with special needs and a new grandchild to support, along with daunting future college expenses. He warns her that at the rate they’re going, they could end up broke by the time her term of office is over. And that’s if she doesn’t run for a second term.
Partly because of her family’s desire for her to get out of politics, at least for awhile, and partly because she’s getting neither legislative cooperation nor public support, Sarah agrees to step down.
Which of these possibilities do we think is closest to the truth? Our choice is the third one, although it’s only a guess.
Now, what do you think is behind Palin’s retreat?
“You won’t have Sarah Palin to kick around any more!” I know common sense dictates that she’s getting out while the criminal getting is good, but since she’s proven to be the true political chess master, I think she has all us rubes fooled and merely wants spend more time fishing.
Randal nailed it — “You won’t have Sarah Palin to kick around any more!”
After all, it worked for Nixon. Trouble is, he had to wait six years. If Sarah Palin waits until 2015 to get back into politics again, what will she do in the meantime?
OK, RG, but I suspect it won’t be long before she’s off across the country, cutting bait, so to speak.
Tom, Nixon showed how you can be effective in advancing yourself in politics without holding public office during his six years as a private citizen. Most of the candidates, campaign managers, state party chairpersons and others he helped in their runs for state and federal office or party leadership posts turned around and supported him in 1968.